New Zealand’s thoroughbred industry is facing a significant decline in foal numbers, with a 22% drop over the past decade and a 10% decrease since 2020, according to the New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association (NZTBA). This decline threatens the sustainability of the racing calendar, as fewer foals lead to smaller race fields and reduced wagering revenue. Over 500 breeders have exited the industry in the last ten years, shrinking the breeding base by nearly a third. Despite this, New Zealand-bred horses remain competitive internationally, winning a notable share of Australia’s top races, and about 35% of young horses are exported, which further reduces the domestic racing population.

Industry experts warn that without intervention, the number of horses racing in New Zealand could fall by 18% by the mid-2030s, leading to fewer or smaller races and impacting wagering turnover. NZTBA CEO Nick Johnson suggests that targeted incentives at the breeding level, such as breeder premiums similar to those in France, could help reverse the trend. However, such measures have not yet been prioritized in New Zealand. The decline is most pronounced among small and hobby breeders, highlighting the need for a coordinated industry strategy to support breeding and maintain the health of the racing sector.