Title: "2025 Kentucky Derby: Expert Picks and Predictions for the Run for the Roses"
It’s officially Kentucky Derby week, which means horse racing fans are taking a detailed look at the 2025 Kentucky Derby field in hopes of picking the winner. A boisterous crowd is expected to pack the stands at Churchill Downs on Saturday. The first jewel in the Triple Crown, the Kentucky Derby is always one of the most wagered-on sporting events of the year. The 151st Run for the Roses is set to take place on Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET. Journalism, who has won four consecutive starts, is the 3-1 favorite, according to the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.
At 5-1, Sovereignty is also among the top 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders. If you’re looking for one of the 2025 Kentucky Derby longshots to include in your 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, look no further than Citizen Bull (20-1), who has won three of his last four starts. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. Menez is not keen on taking closers to win the Kentucky Derby 2025 since they are dependent on a fast pace up front and generally lose ground on the far turn.
Trainer Mark Casse has not started a horse in the Kentucky Derby in four years and is winless with 10 starters in eight editions of the Run for the Roses. Sandman raced twice at Churchill Downs in the fall, but he did not finish better than third in the Iroquois Stakes or Street Sense. "He is coming off a win in the Arkansas Derby, but in that race he was the beneficiary of an enormous pace meltdown, which made his 2.5-length win look more impressive than it actually was," Menez told SportsLine. Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade when finalizing how to bet the Kentucky Derby 2025.
Another curveball: Menez is high on Burnham Square, even though he is a 12-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Burnham Square is a relatively late bloomer among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses. He won his first race in December of last year and didn’t participate in his first graded-stakes event until February.
Overall, he made up for lost time since that point, winning the Holy Bull Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes. Some bettors, however, are fading him because of his fourth-place run at the Fountain of Youth Stakes in March. Menez isn’t too concerned, noting that trainer Carl Nafzger "didn’t need Burnham Square 100% cranked up" at that point. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Menez’ top pick is a horse who "is bred to only get better with the added distance." He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns "the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls." Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
