Title: Insights from Industry Leaders Ahead of the Arqana Breeze-Up Sale
Deauville, FRANCE-The breeze-up circus rolls onto Arqana this week and, following the breeze on Thursday, where 162 of some of the best-bred horses in Europe were put through their paces, a number of key industry stakeholders weighed in on what might come to fruition this week.
From market predictions to revealing their highs and lows of the breeze-up season thus far, heavyweights Roger O’Callaghan, Roderic Kavanagh, Tessa Greatrex, Valfredo Valiani, and Matt Coleman have answered some of the key questions ahead of what promises to be another blockbuster sale on Saturday.
Has the breeze-up season met your expectations so far?
Tessa Greatrex: Yes. I was slightly apprehensive about trying to repeat the success of last year, which was my first year shopping at the breeze-ups, but it has worked out really well so far. I have put a bit of pressure on myself to find some nice horses at prices I can afford but it’s so far so good. I buy mainly on behalf of my husband, Warren [Greatrex, trainer], as well as Jim and Claire Bryce. Yankee Dude is probably the best horse that we have bought from the breeze-ups last year while Orchard, who came out of this sale last year, won last week. With the way National Hunt racing has developed, I think it’s good for trainers to diversify, and buying these horses at the breeze-ups helps Warren’s yard run all year round.
Roger O’Callaghan: Yes. The results of the breeze-ups are speaking for themselves. I suppose you would have been a bit anxious about [Donald] Trump before the breeze-ups started but the results have been too good and buyers want the good horses. Even the middle market has been good. The market has been very fair.
Matt Coleman: Maybe not quite, simply because the yearling sales were so strong last year, there hasn’t been quite the same strength-in-depth at the breeze-ups compared to previous years. There have obviously been some outstanding horses at the sales this year but I felt it lacked some strength in depth purely because the yearling sales were so strong. I’d say we have the deepest bunch of horses at Arqana compared to any other sale this year. I’m sure there will be some serious horses to come out of it.
Roderic Kavanagh: We’ve had some good results but I have been reminded this year more so than ever that it has become ultra-selective and, if you don’t have the right product, you won’t get paid. The top 25 percent has become incredibly strong. It’s just more selective than ever. But on the whole, it’s been incredible.
Valfredo Valiani: The market has been quite good but there are good opportunities to buy nice horses at the middle tier level and I have bought quite a few so far. I think the breeze-up handlers are doing better and better every year and Ruling Court winning the 2,000 Guineas was not a surprise to me. Let’s not forget that it is not the first time that this has happened. Anthony Stroud also bought Native Trail. So he has bought two Guineas winners and, as I said, the breeze-up handlers are doing a very good job and they need to be commended for the job that they have been doing. I am actually suggesting more and more of my clients to buy horses at the breeze-ups now.
What has been the biggest surprise of the year so far?
Greatrex: Coming from a National Hunt background, when horses are making millions, it’s always a bit of a shock. I have to say, I was delighted to see Goffs break their own record when the Mehmas colt sold to Godolphin for a million pounds. That was a great result and I think it’s important for the bloodstock business that there’s competition [between the sales houses].
O’Callaghan: Johnny and Danielle Hurley’s Kodi Bear making half a million at Donny. That’s class. Like, that’s the beauty of this game. It was a bit like a couple of boys in our yard, they bought a Coulsty filly for three grand and they ended up getting 120 grand at the Guineas Sale last week. In what other game can that happen? No other business is like ours. It’s amazing.
Coleman: The prices that the top horses made at Doncaster and at the Craven. I didn’t expect that. There are three very big buyers between Amo Racing, Wathnan Racing, and Godolphin and when they clash, that’s what can happen.
Kavanagh: The price [£320,000] our Too Darn Hot filly fetched at Doncaster. She was expensive by the kilogram but what was there was lovely!
Valiani: A lot of people go strictly on times and, as a result, some horses probably make too much money. There have been some horses where I could never have predicted they would make what they did. Personally, I am not as obsessed with times as other people. Of course, it can be important, but it is not the most important thing for me.
And the biggest disappointment?
Greatrex: Not being able to attract more owners to invest at the breeze-ups off the back of our success last year. The harder you look, the more likely you are to find a bargain. I’m a great believer that horses find you a bit in this game. And another thing I love about this business is building relationships with vendors and taking their word on a horse. You build up a bit of trust together. I just wish more people would get involved in buying at the breeze-up sales because I think there is value there.
O’Callaghan: Nothing to do with the breeze-ups, but Big Evs getting kicked in the Willy! He missed a couple of weeks of the breeding season as a result but he’s back fine again now.
Coleman: There are a couple of horses I think about and wonder if I should have been stronger on them but you won’t know that until they hit the track. I probably wish I bought a few more horses so far but hopefully I’ll be able to buy a few this week.
Kavanagh: Probably last week at the Guineas Sale because it’s always been a very lucky sale for me but we didn’t quite hit the mark this year.
Valiani: Nothing has disappointed me too much for me to remember. I have been lucky enough not to have been disappointed this year.
What did you learn this year?
Greatrex: That you have to focus on the whole package without getting transfixed on times or stallions. You have to keep your eyes open when trying to source value. I must say, I have been brilliantly guided by Ant [Anthony Bromley], whose success speaks for itself.
O’Callaghan: That you never know where the good horse will come out of. The beauty of the breeze-ups is that the good horses can come out of any sale and, from a vendor’s point of view, if you rock up with a nice horse you will be well-rewarded. Sometimes you can lose sight of that fact. I mean, we all want to go to Keeneland or Book 1 at Tattersalls. But you can buy a nice horse anywhere and get a few quid if they are good enough. Sometimes you can forget that.
Coleman: That if a vendor has a good-looking horse by the right stallion and it happens to breeze well, they will get an awful lot of money. I also learned that the bottom of the market is becoming trickier and trickier. Trainers are short on owners and short on orders. The headline horses make for good reading but the bottom of the market is becoming tougher. The rising costs and poor prize-money are leaving trainers on their heels a little bit in terms of buying too many horses on spec.
Kavanagh: Plenty. I probably left some of my horses a little bit short this year. Maybe I was too confident that they were in a good spot but, in hindsight, they were probably a little bit underdone. This game is gone so professional that you need to have them ready and mine probably could have been fitter.
Valiani: I try to learn as much as I can every day because this is a game where, if you think you know it all, you are finished. I usually watch the breeze with friends and I always try to discuss with them what I saw and try to understand what they saw. Anthony Stroud is a good friend and I love listening to his views on horses. Points of view can be so different with racehorses. It’s fascinating.
Do you think another blockbuster sale is on the cards at Arqana this week?
Greatrex: There seems to be plenty of people here and there is a good vibe so why not? There seems to be a lot of nice horses here as well so it wouldn’t surprise me if the momentum continues.
O’Callaghan: I hope so. But on a serious note, why wouldn’t it? The standard is very good and the results mean the people need to stand up and take note.
Coleman: I think it will be very strong at the top again but I’m not sure what the middle market will be like as it doesn’t seem overly busy thus far but I am sure a lot of the English and Irish trainers will arrive on Friday. This sale last year was extremely strong but the bottom third was skinny. I know that Arqana has made a big effort to get more normal buyers to the sale so we’ll see what comes of that.
Kavanagh: Yes, it has to be. The top end will be electric.
Valiani: I think it will be. The only thing I will say is that the standard of horse that was here last year was exceptional. I haven’t seen all of the horses in the sale yet but I think last year set a very high standard.
And on a personal level, what would deem this week a success for you?
Greatrex: Filling orders and finding future winners.
O’Callaghan: Sell all my horses. Empty head collars. I get more anxious about how they run when they hit the track over the next couple of weeks compared to selling them in the ring. You just want them to go on and be good racehorses.
Coleman: Buy horses that win good races.
Kavanagh: I wanted to hit a million between my five horses but I don’t know if I will do that. I’ll happily take having a good week and getting them all sold.
Valiani: It’s quite an expensive sale and I work for a lot of foreign clients. There is very little space for Italians here but I do other business. Last year I bought two horses here. One has won and the other was placed first time out. If I could do similar business this week, I would be very happy.
Can you nominate one horse from the breeze-ups worth looking out for when it hits the track?
Greatrex: I bought a Lope Y Fernandez filly at the Guineas Sale last week and, while I slightly blew my budget, I loved her and I wasn’t going to be beaten. I think she’s exciting.
O’Callaghan: We sold a Starman colt at the Craven Breeze-Up Sale to Richard Brown of Blandford Bloodstock. He’s gone into training with Richard Fahey and I’d say he’s one to follow. I think they named him Tactical Formation.
Coleman: I bid on a Ubettabelieveit colt that Anthony [Stroud] ended up buying for £300,000 at Doncaster. He is a very nice horse who looks quick and tough. He should make up into a very fast two-year-old.
Kavanagh: The Havana Grey filly that Nick Bell bought off me at the Craven. Let’s just say Nick is a very good negotiator! I’d be hopeful about her now.
Valiani: I bought a very nice Kodiac colt from Tally-Ho Stud at the Guineas Sale last week. He has gone to Italy and I think he’s a lovely horse who came from an excellent consignor in Tally-Ho.
