Title: "Belmont Stakes Showdown: Sovereignty, Journalism, and the Rising Star Baeza"
This week’s Belmont Stakes is billed as a showdown between Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby winner, and Journalism, the Derby runner-up who polished his reputation with a gutty victory in the Preakness. That rematch, or that matchup of Derby and Preakness winners, makes the race at Saratoga on Saturday the most fascinating kind of Belmont for real fans. The puzzle is superior to the kind in which a single dominant horse goes for a Triple Crown sweep.
But there’s even more to this Belmont.
It’s a rematch not just of the 1-2 finishers in the Kentucky Derby but the 1-2-3 finishers, with Baeza a serious threat to continue his race-by-race improvement and score a mild upset with Flavien Prat riding for Santa Anita-based trainer John Shirreffs and owners Lee and Susan Searing of Claremont.
The eight horses line up like this, from the rail out, for the race to be run at Saratoga while Belmont Park undergoes ground-up renovation and at 1¼ miles instead of its traditional 1½ miles to accommodate the track’s configuration: 1. Hill Road (Irad Ortiz Jr. riding), 10-1 on the morning line; 2. Sovereignty (Junior Alvarado), 2-1; 3. Rodriguez (Mike Smith), 6-1; 4. Uncaged (Luis Saez), 30-1; 5. Crudo (John Velazquez), 15-1; 6. Baeza, 4-1; 7. Journalism (Umberto Rispoli), 8-5, and 8. Heart of Honor (Saffie Osborne), 30-1.
Strong cases can be made for at least three horses – and for at least one potential bet.
Sovereignty
It’s hard to knock the Derby victory – by 1½ lengths over Journalism and 1¾ over Baeza – by a 7-1 third choice in the betting who now has three wins and a second in four starts at the graded stakes level since October.
The son of leading North American sire Into Mischief loses nothing and may have gained fitness from the decision by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott and owner Godolphin to skip the Preakness two weeks after the Derby and focus on the Belmont and summer and fall races.
The one question mark is whether Sovereignty’s come-from-behind style was helped by the makeup of the Derby field. The 19 starters included five who’d led or dueled for the lead early in their most recent victories, creating the possibility of a pace battle that would soften up the front-runners and set up the closers. Although the pace didn’t turn out to be super-fast on the sloppy track, the results did follow the X’s and O’s. Citizen Bull and American Promise, speedsters who were bet like contenders, were first and third early but faded to finish 15th and 16th. Sovereignty, Sandman and Final Gambit, habitual stretch runners who were well-backed, sat 16th, 18th and 19th early and rallied to run first, seventh and fourth.
If Sovereignty needs a pace duel in front of him – if is the word – he’s unlikely to get it in the Belmont.
Journalism
The Derby’s 3-1 favorite after a good win in the Santa Anita Derby, Journalism led the Derby briefly in the stretch only to be passed by the fast-finishing Sovereignty.
Might the loss to Sovereignty not be definitive? Maybe, if you believe the Derby favored big closers like Sovereignty. Journalism didn’t have that benefit, racing 10th early in the 19-horse race, within five lengths of the lead after a half-mile. Also, Journalism hit the lead earlier than he did in his wins at Santa Anita. Rispoli may have learned that the son of Curlin is more effective with a target to chase than with a lead to defend.
The subsequent victory in the Preakness convinced many that Journalism is the best 3-year-old in America. (It sent him back to No. 1 in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s 3-year-old rankings, with 19 first-place votes to Sovereignty’s eight.) But it also added stress to the challenge of being the only horse in the Belmont racing for the third time in five weeks.
Trainer Michael McCarthy and lead owner Aron Wellman didn’t make it official until Sunday that Journalism would be entered in the Belmont. Their reputations are sound, and if they say Journalism is good to go, they can be believed.
Baeza
Everything about Baeza says he’s a horse on the rise after not racing for the first time until December or winning for the first time until February: His Beyer speed figures have improved month by month, from 60 to 87 to 93 to 101 for his second in the Santa Anita Derby to 103 for his third in the Kentucky Derby. He had a tenacious finish in Louisville, where after escaping traffic at the top of the stretch he was moving faster than Sovereignty and Journalism at the finish and galloped out in front.
Skipping a prep for the Santa Anita Derby nearly cost the son of McKinzie the points needed to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. But now, combined with skipping the Preakness, the fact an attentive trainer followed his own schedule with his most promising horse turns into one of the things to like about Baeza.
We know how good Journalism and Sovereignty are, and now we may see how good Baeza is.
Rodriguez
After missing the Derby and Preakness because of a foot bruise, the Bob Baffert-trained son of Authentic lands in a spot where he’s the classier of only two front-runners, and his Wood Memorial victory in April showed what he’s capable of doing when he sets his own pace.
With Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza all come-from-behinders, Rodriguez is the one who could steal the race and should be respected.
How to bet?
You’re unlikely to get what gamblers call value in the odds on the Derby winner, the Preakness winner or the Baffert horse. You may get it on Baeza, who seems to be of the same class as Journalism and Sovereignty but hasn’t proved it yet. I’d take 4-1 or higher on Baeza.
The picks here: 1. Baeza, 2. Journalism, 3. Sovereignty, 4. Rodriguez.
Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.
