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Saturday, May 3, 2025
HomeHorse ShowsTitle: "Countdown to the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Expert Picks and Betting Insights" The...

Title: "Countdown to the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Expert Picks and Betting Insights"

The countdown to the first leg of the prestigious horse racing Triple Crown is on, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby set to run on Saturday. Post time for the 151st edition of the "Run for the Roses" is at 6:57 p.m. ET. Journalism, trained by Michael McCarthy, is the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. The three-year-old colt heads into Churchill Downs on a four-race winning streak. Other top 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field include Sovereignty (5-1), Sandman (6-1), and Burnham Square (12-1). Could a surprise longshot make a splash and upset the favored 2025 Kentucky Derby horses or will Journalism come away with the win? With so much to consider while making your 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, a little expert help can go a long way.

The Kentucky Derby has earned the nickname "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports." The first race was held in 1875 on a 1.5-mile track in front of an estimated 10,000 fans. Churchill Downs is now a 1.25-mile track with attendance figures topping 150,000 on an annual basis. The Kentucky Derby is held annually on the first Saturday in May and is the longest continuously held sporting event in the United States. The Kentucky Derby has also become known as "The Run for the Roses" because of the longstanding tradition of draping the winning horse in a blanket of roses.

Given all the history, there’s a method to picking which horses to focus on for exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets in a Kentucky Derby like this, and SportsLine expert Jody Demling knows what it is. He can help you make the best 2025 Kentucky Derby picks possible.

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks could be up huge at sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires, and 1/ST BET.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby betting predictions over at SportsLine.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby expert picks

Here’s a refresher on these types of bets from SportsLine’s Jody Demling:

Kentucky Derby Exacta: Pick the first- and second-place finishers in the correct order. A $2 exacta returned $258.56 at the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone.

Kentucky Derby Trifecta: Pick the first-, second- and third-place finishers in the correct order. A $1 trifecta returned $1,113.84 at the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone and Forever Young.

Kentucky Derby Superfecta: Pick the first-, second-, third- and fourth-place finishers in the correct order. A $1 superfecta returned a colossal $8,254 at the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone, Forever Young and Catching Freedom.

While Demling has no quibbles about the favorite status of Journalism (3-1), the Michael McCarthy-trained colt isn’t his top pick. Instead, he is building his tickets around Luxor Cafe (15-1) and an even bigger longshot who is "generating buzz on the backside," spicing up his 2025 Kentucky Derby exotics.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets

Demling has specific recommendations for exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagers so you can cover all your bases at the Kentucky Derby 2025.

So which horses do you take? And in what combinations? Visit SportsLine to get Demling’s picks for exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures, horses, post positions.

The 2025 Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET, marking the 151st edition of this iconic horse race. The favorite, Journalism, trained by Michael McCarthy, boasts a four-race winning streak and is currently at 3-1 odds. Other notable contenders include Sovereignty (5-1), Sandman (6-1), and Burnham Square (12-1). The Derby, known as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports,” has a rich history dating back to 1875 and is celebrated for its tradition of draping the winning horse in roses.

Expert Jody Demling, a seasoned figure in horse racing analysis, offers insights for making informed betting choices, including exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers. He has a strong track record, having accurately predicted multiple Derby outcomes and other major races over the years. His expertise can help bettors navigate the complexities of the Derby, especially with the post positions and odds now established.

While Demling acknowledges Journalism’s favorite status, he suggests focusing on Luxor Cafe (15-1) and another longshot generating buzz for potential betting success. For those looking to place bets, Demling provides specific recommendations on how to structure wagers effectively, available through SportsLine.

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Title: "Against All Odds: Ali Kuhn and Little Hail Shine at the 2024 Kentucky Three-Day Event"


At the 2024 Defender Kentucky Three-Day Event, where seasoned professionals, Olympic veterans, and polished 5* horses command much of the attention, one compact, scrappy Thoroughbred stole the show—dressed in bright watermelon pink.

Little Hail, a 15.2-hand (maybe, on an especially tall day) gelding with a grumpy face and a heart the size of the Horse Park itself, didn’t just finish his first CCI4-S last weekend. He carried his rider, Wisconsin-based Ali Kuhn, around her first-ever 4, completing one of the toughest events on the U.S. calendar with grit, joy, and not a single ounce of pretense.

“I never expected to be here,” Ali admits. “Let alone to finish here.”

Little Hail is 16 this year, and his journey to Kentucky was anything but linear. Originally campaigned by John Crowell, ‘Hail’ competed successfully before being turned out in a field when John stepped back from competing. By the time Ali got the call, Hail had been out of work for over two years.

“Dorothy [Crowell] and John had offered him to a few people, and no one wanted him,” Ali recalls. “Too small, not fancy enough, just kind of overlooked. But I had just put down my horse—my Intermediate hopeful—and I was ready to give up. I’d lost three horses to freak things. I was going to be done.”

Then the phone rang. “John said, ‘Hey,’ and I said, ‘Are you finally going to give me Hail?’ And he paused and said, ‘Actually, that’s why I’m calling.’ I was terrified. I didn’t want to take him—what if something happened again? But my husband said, ‘I think you should.’”

And so she did. Hail was delivered to a truck stop in Sun Prairie, WI—”like a sketchy horse drug deal”—and the next chapter of their story began.

“He was fat, out of shape, and the first time I jumped him, I genuinely thought he was trying to kill me,” she laughs. “But then we got to work. We started slow. First event? I got run away with. But after a couple levels, it became obvious—this horse loves the job. No jump is too big. No course is too long.”

Under the steady guidance of John and Dorothy Crowell, along with Cathy Jones Forsberg, Ali and Hail slowly climbed the ranks. From Training to Modified, then to Intermediate—where they kept winning.

“I remember telling Dorothy I wanted to try Intermediate,” Ali says. For her, even “just” going Intermediate was the dream. “She said, ‘Let’s do it—he’ll love it.’ And he did. The height just made him happier. It was like, finally, someone was respecting his opinion about fence size.”

For most riders, especially those in the Midwest, just reaching the Advanced level is a career goal in itself. But Ali’s little horse kept saying yes.

“I never dreamed that big,” she admits. “But then I joked to Cathy at Rocking Horse that maybe I’d try the [Kentucky four-star] next year. And she looked right at me and said, ‘Why wait for next year?’ I thought she was out of her mind. But then we went and did our first Advanced, and he was perfect.”

With that encouragement, the plan shifted—Ali would try to qualify for Kentucky.

“But the final three-star I needed was a disaster,” she says. “I got held on course at a frangible they were fixing, launched into a combination, and had a dumb run-out. It was terrible. Zero out of five stars. I went home thinking, ‘What am I doing?’”

Still, they pressed on. They made it to TerraNova for a final prep, and even through nerves and another bobble, Hail jumped out of his skin. Kentucky, incredibly, was on.

But not everyone thought it should be.

“I had people—good riders—say, ‘Hey, I want you to know that I did every other four-star before I took that one on.’ And I totally understand. I don’t recommend this path for most people. But I lived in Kentucky. Hail had been to the Horse Park a thousand times. We’d just won a three-star there that fall. For us, it felt like home.”

That context matters. Kentucky was her first 4*, but it wasn’t a leap of faith—it was the next step in a well-prepared, deeply supported journey. Still, Ali admits there was a chip on her shoulder.

“Absolutely,” she says when I asked her about this. “There were people who didn’t think we could or should. And I wanted to show them—and myself—that we could. I didn’t get handed a made horse. I had $700 in my bank account and a dream. I said, ‘I am not leaving Kentucky with a letter. I am leaving with a number.’”

And she did.

“I didn’t even turn on my watch,” Ali said of her memorable cross country round, which even elicited messages from riders she hadn’t met, like Will Faudree and Hawley Bennett-Awad. “I just rode the plan. I walked the course with my sister and said, ‘I think we can do this.’ And I meant it. I’ve never ridden better in my life. He was so happy out there. Every jump, he was like, ‘YES!’ I just remember going into the box, I looked at her and I was almost in tears, and I said, ‘You know we can do this, right?’ And she said, “Absolutely.’”

And the bright pink gear? A joke-turned-tradition.

“It started with the teenage girls in my barn. They thought Hail would look cute in watermelon pink LeMieux,” Ali said. “I was like, ‘No way, I’m trying to be professional.’ So they bought it all for my 30th birthday—bonnet, saddle pad, helmet cover, the works. I wore it once and everyone made fun of me—until the pictures started coming in. He looked amazing. So we leaned into it.”

Even more poetically, those colors—black, pink, and white—turned out to be Little Hail’s racing colors. “He was the last foal born at Harbor View Farm, and they actually reached out after Kentucky. They were thrilled. The people who foaled him were there to watch. They said he was a menace as a baby. So they couldn’t believe he was out there doing this.”

So what’s next?

“People ask if I’m thinking about a five-star. And honestly? I don’t know. I’ve already gone so far beyond what I ever thought I could do. If it works out someday, sure—but this? This was already my dream.”

And her message to others?

“I just want people to know that they don’t have to be rich. They can run around Kentucky in hot pink and smile and have a good time, and have a freaking dollar to their name—and they can still do it.”

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