Title: Betting Insights for the $5 Million Kentucky Derby: Top Contenders and Strategies
Betting $500 on the $5 million Kentucky Derby, May 3, Churchill Downs
By The Professor (US Racing Handicapper)
PRIME CONTENDERS
#8 Journalism (3-1) Here is the moment we have been waiting for all winter into spring, and here is the horse who deservedly earned the role of Derby favorite.
In a prep season of stunning upsets and inconsistent efforts, Journalism has been rock solid. He has reeled off four straight wins, including the Santa Anita Derby (G1), where he overcame trouble to prevail. The son of Curlin has the right pedigree and an ideal post.
Journalism owns the best speed figures in the field and the midpack starting spot is ideal, thanks to the ton of speed to his inside. He loves to stalk the pace and should be well-positioned when the early leaders fade.
Favorites often struggle in the Derby, but this one looks like the real deal.
#18 Sovereignty (5-1) is arguably the best closer in the race, the horse most likely to barrel down the center of the lengthy Churchill Downs stretch. His surging victory in the Fountain of Youth (G2) was visually impressive. He followed that with a fast-closing second in the Florida Derby (G1), an ideal final prep for this race.
Everything about his running style suggests he is built for the 1 1/4-mile journey in the Kentucky Derby. He’ll need some luck to clear traffic from an outside post, but if he can see them at the top of the lane, he can catch them.
#17 Sandman (6-1) is a gray colt who will be easy to spot when he starts to make his move. He finally put it together to capture the Arkansas Derby (G1).
Like Sovereignty, Sandman is a consistent closer who would benefit from a wicked speed duel to soften up the front-runners. With speedsters like Citizen Bull, Neoequos, and Rodriguez all drawing inside slots, the pace figures to be lively. When they’re ready for their naps, Sandman will be looking to pounce.
#10 Grande (20-1) will try to follow in the hoofprints of Big Brown, Justify, and Mage by winning the Derby in only his fourth start.
The lack of experience is offset by his potential. The son of Curlin should handle the distance, and he gained valuable seasoning with a second-place rally in the Wood Memorial (G2).
The Hall of Fame team of trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez are no strangers to this rodeo. This is a good place to land if you want to upset the Kentucky Derby applecart.
WORTH A LOOK
#14 Tiztastic (20-1) shouldn’t have a problem with the race distance after capturing the Louisiana Derby (G2), the longest U.S. Derby prep at 1 3/16 miles.
He is tough and durable, making his ninth career start here. He took a big step forward in the Louisiana Derby at 7-1 and will have to continue to progress.
Tiztastic’s ace in the hole: Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who has been king of the Derby prep upsets this year.
Kentucky Derby Betting Insights
$50 Win $50 Place: #8 Journalism (the bet: $100)
$5 Exacta box: #8 Journalism/ #10 Grande/ #14 Tiztastic/ #17 Sandman/ #18 Sovereignty (the bet: $100)
50-cent Trifecta box: #4 Rodriguez/ #5 American Promise/ #8 Journalism/ #9 Burnham Square/ #10 Grande/ #14 Tiztastic/ #16 Coal Battle/ #17 Sandman/ #18 Sovereignty (the bet: $252)
$1 Exacta wheel: #8 Journalism / ALL (the bets: $19)
$1 Exacta wheel: ALL / #8 Journalism (the bet: $19)
$5 Win: Admire Daytona (the bet: $5)
$5 Win: Render Judgment (the bet: $5)
TOTAL INVESTMENT: $500
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
