A recent statewide poll conducted by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University highlights the dynamics shaping the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate primaries. On the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton leads narrowly over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, with U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt showing strong early support despite not yet officially entering the race. Among Democrats, former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred edges out other contenders in hypothetical matchups, though figures like Beto O’Rourke and Jasmine Crockett would be frontrunners if they decide to run. Overall, Republicans currently outperform Democrats in voter preference, but early polling remains fluid as many voters are not yet fully engaged.
The poll also reveals shifting voter attitudes toward President Donald Trump, whose support in Texas has waned since his 2024 re-election. While Trump won Texas with 56% of the vote last year, only 49% of respondents say they would vote for him again, with notable declines among independents, Gen Z, Democrats who previously backed him, and Latino voters—a key demographic that swung heavily toward Trump in 2024 but now shows increased Democratic preference. This erosion of support could challenge the GOP’s recent congressional redistricting efforts aimed at securing additional seats, especially in Latino-heavy South Texas districts. The findings suggest that both parties face critical decisions as they prepare for the midterms, with voter sentiment potentially reshaping the political landscape.
