This Saturday at Santa Anita marks a significant moment in North American horse racing with the introduction of two handicaps based on a new national ratings system developed by Equibase. Unlike traditional claiming races, this system uses an algorithm to assign horses numerical ratings (0-150) based on multiple factors including performance, race class, surface, distance, and recent form. The ratings are updated daily and aim to help racing secretaries better match horses for races while giving owners confidence to run their horses without risking their claiming status. This algorithmic approach is novel globally, as other jurisdictions rely on human handicappers, and represents a soft launch intended for refinement through industry feedback.
The system was developed through extensive collaboration with around 40-50 industry stakeholders across data science, competition, handicapping, wagering, and international communities. Testing involved rating horses from 12 different tracks and analyzing five years of race data to ensure accuracy and consistency. While some ratings have raised questions, the creators emphasize that the system rewards consistent activity and evaluates overall aptitude rather than single-race speed. Industry reactions are mixed but cautiously optimistic, with many adopting a wait-and-see stance. The launch aims to provide a new tool to manage shrinking horse populations and improve race quality, though its full impact and acceptance remain to be seen.