The Fasig-Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, a key Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier, historically favors horses with early speed, recent prep races, and stakes experience. Since 2011, nine of the last 16 winners were among the leaders after the first half-mile, and 15 winners had prior stakes experience. Additionally, horses exiting the local Lecomte Stakes have a strong record, with seven winners coming from that race. Favorites have been vulnerable, with longshots frequently pulling off upsets, as evidenced by several winners with double-digit odds.

Trainers Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox have been particularly successful in recent years. For the 2026 edition, Chip Honcho fits the historical trends well, boasting early speed, a recent prep in the Lecomte Stakes, and training by Asmussen, making him a strong contender despite likely long odds. In contrast, the expected favorite Paladin has not raced since December, which may give Chip Honcho an edge in this competitive and often unpredictable race.