The 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar highlights a growing trend in horse racing where top contenders enter major races after extended layoffs rather than recent prep races. Many leading horses, including favorites like Sovereignty, Fierceness, and defending champion Sierra Leone, have not raced since August, reflecting a shift toward “load management” and longer rest periods. This approach contrasts with earlier eras when horses frequently raced in the weeks leading up to big events. Trainers and experts attribute this change to modern breeding producing less durable horses, stricter medication rules, and a strategic focus on peak performance in a few high-stakes races rather than accumulating frequent wins.
This trend complicates handicapping, as bettors cannot rely on recent race form to gauge contenders’ current condition. Instead, they must depend more on training reports, workouts, and historical performance off layoffs. While some trainers like Chad Brown and Bill Mott excel at preparing horses after long breaks, the lack of recent racing data adds uncertainty to predictions. Despite this, the Breeders’ Cup remains a showcase for elite talent, with top horses and trainers adapting to evolving strategies to maximize their chances in the sport’s richest and most prestigious events.
