This week’s Belmont Stakes features a highly anticipated rematch between Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby winner, and Journalism, the Derby runner-up who recently triumphed in the Preakness. This race is particularly intriguing as it includes not just the top two finishers from the Derby but also Baeza, who has shown significant improvement and poses a potential upset threat. The race will take place at Saratoga, with a distance of 1¼ miles due to renovations at Belmont Park.

Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott, has demonstrated strong performance with three wins and a second in four graded stakes starts. However, questions linger about whether his come-from-behind style will be effective without a fast pace to set up his rally. Conversely, Journalism, who briefly led in the Derby, has been praised for his Preakness victory, but the challenge of racing three times in five weeks could impact his performance.

Baeza is emerging as a strong contender, having improved his speed figures consistently and finishing strongly in both the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Rodriguez, another horse to watch, could potentially steal the race as a front-runner. Betting strategies suggest that while the favorites may not offer good value, Baeza could be a worthwhile wager if the odds are favorable. The predicted finishing order is Baeza, Journalism, Sovereignty, and Rodriguez.